WAR IN UKRAINE: October 29, 2022
Ukrainian forces have made big gains in Kherson region but the wet weather is slowing down their progress
LATEST DEVELOPMENTS: Day 248
Ukraine's military says Russia is massing troops on the right bank of the Dnipro River as both sides appear poised for what could be a key battle for Kherson in Ukraine's south, while Russian officials claim all civilians were evacuated from the city, reports RFE/RL. Meanwhile, Russia says it has completed its operation to move at least 70,000 civilians out of the occupied Ukrainian city of Kherson - what Kyiv calls forced deportations. A Russian militia commander said its troops were preparing Kherson for defence, ahead of an expected battle with advancing Ukrainian forces, reports BBC. Meanwhile, Russia said it had mobilised the required 300,000 reservists. Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu told President Vladimir Putin that 41,000 of those called up had already been deployed to the battlefield in Ukraine. The numbers have not been independently verified. The minister's comments come amid growing public anger across Russia over the mobilisation drive.
Kyiv residents have been told to ready themselves for up to six hours without power daily. "The schedules will not be pleasant. I'm warning you right away, because the number of hours during which you will have to remain without power, unfortunately, must be increased," - DTEK Director Dmytro Sakharuk - Trukha
Meanwhile, President Volodymyr Zelensky said in his nightly address Friday that about 10-million Ukrainians are being impacted by scheduled power outages - Ukrainska Pravda
Canada will offer a government-backed, 5-year bond to raise money for Ukraine, the first country to do so, and it will impose new sanctions on 35 Russian individuals, including Gazprom executives, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said on Friday. "Canadians will now be able to go to major banks to purchase their sovereignty bonds which will mature after five years with interest," Trudeau told an annual meeting of the Ukrainian Canadian Congress in Winnipeg. Separately, Deputy PM Chrystia Freeland, said the government has approved a total amount of $500-million that will be administered through the IMF. She challenged the Ukrainian community to meet that goal, suggesting the government could increase the bond ceiling. She said funds raised by the bond sale will go directly to the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine. It was not made known when the bonds will go on sale and at which interest rate.
Required reading…
Russian tactical nuclear arsenal makes for high risk - Oxford Analytica
The risk of nuclear attack on Ukraine has been heightened by President Vladimir Putin’s threat to defend Russia’s interests by ‘any means’, a reference to military doctrine permitting nuclear retaliation for a conventional attack on Russia. The risk is magnified by the difficulty of telling nuclear-tipped from conventional tactical missiles, amid the sheer proliferation and variety of these weapons which make detecting steps towards escalation difficult.
Not only are Putin’s intentions unpredictable, his willingness to overstep the decades-long taboo on using nuclear weapons is unprecedented and raises serious questions about the effectiveness of Western retaliation, almost certainly non-nuclear.
Impacts
The definition of an ‘existential threat’ to Russia is problematic because it is so vague as a threshold for nuclear strike.
Of the options available, the 9K720 Iskander missile is a strong contender because of its speed.
Tactical nuclear warheads are stored separately and must be transported for deployment on the weapon; this takes time.
Western governments will balance between calming and preparing their populations for a nuclear attack on Ukraine.
